OK it’s that time again – the Grand Finals of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest are about 90 minutes away, so it’s time for predictions – I blew it last year, so we’ll see how we do this year!
Here’s the running order of the grand final:
The biggest question today is “Will anyone from the Big Five upset the results?”
That answer could be “YES!” today. Coming into the finals, there are three big five entries that have HUUUUGE fan support out there – France, Spain, and the UK (surprise!). Italy has also been doing well, but some fans don’t like the fact that Mahmood, who came thisclose to winning 2019’s contest, has teamed up with upstart Blanco for his song this year, and it’s hurting him in some pockets. Germany, despite having a good song, is an also ran this year, with minimal pockets of fan support.
Another question is “What did the Jury vote for?”, since the Jury vote scuttled no fewer than SEVEN fan favorites in the two semi-final rounds, favoring tunes from Switzerland, Moldova, and Iceland above fan-worshipped Albania, San Marino, and others.
It’s safe to say that five songs have solid support with the fans as potential champions:
Sweden – “Hold Me Closer”, Cornelia Jakobs
Norway – “Give that Wolf A Banana”, Subwoolfer
Serbia, “In corpore sano”, Konstrakta
Ukraine – “Stefania”, Kalush Orchestra
Portugal – “Saudade, saudade”, Maro
Of these five, I think the jury is least likely to go for Norway, although it will probably get one or two “douze points” from various countries. Ukraine, because of the ongoing invasion by Russia, will score some political points as well, just as they did in 2016 when “1943” by Jamala jumped into the lead and won at the last minute; Russia was then invading Crimea, a part of Ukraine. The jury also loves to give surprises out, and I think the biggest during the semis could be the same one during the grand finals – Switzerland. Despite general fan indifference (and some honestly out and out loathing) for their song, “Boys Do Cry” by Marius Bear, I think it will do far better in the televote than most people think it will, just as Portugal’s The Black Mamba did last year with their jury favorite “Love Is On My Side”, which the YouTuber ESC fans didn’t like at all but which finished high enough in the televoting to get the song a 10th place finish.
The one true unknown here is the United Kingdom – “Spaceman” by Sam Ryder has a HUGE fan following, just one year after the country got the first “nul points” score (0 from the Jury, 0 from the fans) at Eurovision in over a decade. The question is now if the Jury is behind the song as strongly as the fans – if the answer is yes, it could be a top five finisher; if not, it won’t make it any higher than 6th-10th most likely, at best.
So here we go – going strictly on my gut feeling based on what we know already from the fandom, how the televote tends to skewer at least two fan favorites, and how the judges have reacted to some of the surprises, here are my predictions:
TOP FIVE: (IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER)
Sweden – “Hold Me Closer”, Cornelia Jakobs
Serbia – “In corporo sano”, Konstrakta
Ukraine – “Stefania”, Kalush Orchestra
United Kingdom – “Spaceman”, Sam Ryder
Spain – “SloMo”, Chanel
IN THE MIX BETWEEN 6TH-12TH: ( NO PARTICULAR ORDER)
Switzerland – “Boys Do Cry”, Marius Bear
Norway – “Give That Wolf A Banana, Subwoolfer
Australia – “Not The Same”, Sheldon Riley
Poland – “River”, Ochman
Greece – “Die Together”, Amanda Tenfjord
Portugal – “Saudade, saudade”, Maro
Lithuania – “Sentimentai”, Monica Liu
FAN FAVORITES GETTING SHAFTED:
The Netherlands – “Di Dipete”, S10 (from what I could tell during the semis, I got the distinct feeling she may have JUST barely squeaked through, but I could be wrong…)
France – “Fuleen”, Alvan and Ahez (Not feeling this as strongly from the televoters as from the YouTube contingent)
Estonia – “Hope”, Stefan (the country has a way of completely choking during the televote, although I admit, the top level song, as well as the stylish flair of the inspired Clint Eastwood-esque video could generate more support than I think it’s going to do)
So there’s my predictions – come by after the finals for my livestream and get all the dish on the show!